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# Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
# CoroPy

Initially, this Python package was developed as a part of the graduate course in [Modeling and Simulation of Physical Systems](https://nastava.fesb.unist.hr/nastava/predmeti/11623) and for the paper which can be accessed [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01434). Currently, this is an ongoing project that provides the ability to model the initial growth of the infected individuals and the dynamics of the epidemic, fitting the corresponding curves, observing the epidemic situation through descriptive statistics and calculating epidemiological parameters e.g. expected disease duration, transmission coefficient, reproductive number etc.
Initially, this Python package was developed as a part of the graduate course in [Modeling and Simulation of Physical Systems](https://nastava.fesb.unist.hr/nastava/predmeti/11623) and for the paper which can be accessed [here](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9243757). For citation use the following:

A. L. Kapetanović and D. Poljak, "Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia," 2020 5th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies (SpliTech), Split, Croatia, 2020, pp. 1-5, doi: 10.23919/SpliTech49282.2020.9243757.

or for in bibtex format:

Citation
--------
```citation
@article{kapetanovic2020covid,
title={{Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia}},
author={Ante Lojic Kapetanovic and Dragan Poljak},
@inProceedings{kapetanovic2020,
author={A. L. {Kapetanović} and D. {Poljak}},
booktitle={2020 5th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies (SpliTech)},
title={Modeling the Epidemic Outbreak and Dynamics of COVID-19 in Croatia},
year={2020},
eprint={2005.01434},
archivePrefix={arXiv},
primaryClass={q-bio.PE}
}
pages={1-5},
doi={10.23919/SpliTech49282.2020.9243757}}
```

Currently, this is an ongoing project that provides the ability to model the initial growth of the infected individuals and the dynamics of the epidemic, fitting the corresponding curves, observing the epidemic situation through descriptive statistics and calculating epidemiological parameters e.g. expected disease duration, transmission coefficient, reproductive number, etc.



## Requirements

Check the [`conda_env.yml`](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/conda_env.yml) file.
Check the [`conda_env.yml`](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/conda_env.yml) file.

```bash
$ conda update conda
$ conda install git
$ git clone https://github.com/antelk/covid-19
$ cd covid-19
$ git clone https://github.com/antelk/coropy
$ cd coropy
$ conda env create -f conda_env.yml
```

Expand All @@ -32,8 +37,8 @@ $ conda env create -f conda_env.yml
Install from the source using pip

```bash
$ git clone https://github.com/antelk/covid-19 # if it is not already cloned
$ cd covid-19
$ git clone https://github.com/antelk/coropy # if it is not already cloned
$ cd coropy
$ pip install .
```

Expand All @@ -49,16 +54,16 @@ See [Examples](#Examples) section.

## Examples

Go to the [sandbox](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/tree/master/sandbox) directory and fire up jupyter notebook.
Go to the [sandbox](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/tree/master/sandbox) directory and fire up jupyter notebook.
There are currently 6 notebooks, all exploring the COVID-19 situation in Croatia. To view it online click on following links:
* [Data visualization and trends](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/00-Data-Visualization-and-Trends.ipynb)
* [Exploring mortality](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/01-Exploring-Mortality.ipynb)
* [Outbreak exponential fitting](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/02-Epidemic-Growth-Modeling.ipynb)
* [Modified SEIR simulation](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/03-Modified-SEIR-Simulation.ipynb)
* [SEIRD simulation with confidence intervals based on RT-PCR test sensitivity](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/04-SEIRD-Simulation.ipynb)
* [Multiple outbreaks simulation](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/05-Multiple-Waves-Simulation.ipynb)
* [Reproduction number dynamics in time](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/sandbox/06-Reproduction-Number-Time-Series.ipynb)
* [Data visualization and trends](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/00-Data-Visualization-and-Trends.ipynb)
* [Exploring mortality](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/01-Exploring-Mortality.ipynb)
* [Outbreak exponential fitting](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/02-Epidemic-Growth-Modeling.ipynb)
* [Modified SEIR simulation](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/03-Modified-SEIR-Simulation.ipynb)
* [SEIRD simulation with confidence intervals based on RT-PCR test sensitivity](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/04-SEIRD-Simulation.ipynb)
* [Multiple outbreaks simulation](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/05-Multiple-Waves-Simulation.ipynb)
* [Reproduction number dynamics in time](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/sandbox/06-Reproduction-Number-Time-Series.ipynb)

## License

[MIT](https://github.com/antelk/covid-19/blob/master/LICENSE)
[MIT](https://github.com/antelk/coropy/blob/master/LICENSE)

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