notebooks/pre-analysis-plan.ipynb

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    "# L&S 88 - Final Project Team 3 - Most Common Name in the U.S\n",
    "## Pre-Analysis Plan\n",
    "_Jamie Xie, Kai Chen, Jae Eu, 19 April 2019 7:00 PM_\n",
    "\n",
    "**Table of Contents**\n",
    "\n",
    "1. [Abstract](#Abstract)\n",
    "2. [Data](#Data)\n",
    "3. [Strategy](#Strategy)\n",
    "4. [Analysis](#Analysis)\n",
    "5. [Deliverables](#Deliverables)\n",
    "6. [Sources](#Sources)\n",
    "\n",
    "### Abstract\n",
    "\n",
    "This project will attempt to reproduce analysis by Five-Thirty-Eight to find the most common first and last name combination in the U.S in 2013. The original analysis gathered data of the most common baby first names in the U.S by decade from 1910 to 2010 from the Social Security Administration. Using this data, they factored in life-expectancy to figure out which people are still alive from each decade. This analysis also allowed them to adjust for names that may be more popular now than than they were before. Next, because there are people in the population not included in the SSA data, they corrected the popularity of the first names based on the percentage of the Hispanic population in the U.S. Lastly, they gathered last name data from the Census Bureau and combined their first and last name data using an adjustment matrix from previous research that showed which combinations of first and last names are more common than others. We will attempt to replicate these three adjustments to see if we also find that the most common name in the U.S is James Smith.\n",
    "\n",
    "### Data\n",
    "\n",
    "The data is from the [Github repository](https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data.git) containing the original data on which the analysis was performed. This data includes a table of the total population and Hispanic population by state in 2013, data on last names which includes a breakdown of names by race and ethnicity, an aging curve table which predicts the chances that somone born from a certain decade is still alive in 2013, and an adjustments table which describes the popularity of specific first and last name combinations. We will also gather the first name data they used from the [Social Security Administration](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/limits.html), which lists the most popular 1000 baby names by each year. \n",
    "\n",
    "### Strategy\n",
    "\n",
    "Our coding analysis will attempt to reproduce the three adjustments that the original analysis performed to see if we can come up with the same most common name in the U.S. using the original study's guidelines. We will first load the original tables in a Jupyter notebook, along with the SSA baby name data. Using the aging curve and SSA data, we will predict the most common first names in the U.S. as of 2013. We will then use the data about the Hispanic population in each state to try to correct the popularity of the most common first names. Next, we will combine the surname data from the U.S Census (already ordered by popularity) with the adjust first name data to create a matrix. Lastly, we will apply the adjustments matrix to see which first and last name combinations are more common than others.\n",
    "\n",
    "### Analysis\n",
    "\n",
    "Our statistical analyses will be completely based upon the statistical analyses and assumptions performed in the original study, as we do not have the ability to reproduce them. These will include the age-adjustment using actuarial data to figure out which people with common names are still around, as well as the adjustment of first and last name combinations based on their actual popularity.\n",
    "\n",
    "### Deliverables\n",
    "\n",
    "```\n",
    "| final-project-team-3\n",
    "    | data\n",
    "        | - adjustments.csv                              # original data\n",
    "        | - aging-curve.csv                              # original data\n",
    "        | - data1910-2020.csv                            # first name data from SSA\n",
    "        | - state-pop.csv                                # original data\n",
    "        | - surnames.csv                                 # original data\n",
    "        | - adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv          # output of original data\n",
    "        | - adjusted-name-combinations-matrix.csv        # output of original data\n",
    "        | - new-top-firstNames.csv                       # output of original data\n",
    "        | - new-top-surnames.csv                         # output of original data\n",
    "        | - independent-name-combinations-by-pop.csv     # output of original data\n",
    "    | notebooks\n",
    "        | - Final Project Team 3.ipynb                   # our reproduction analysis\n",
    "    | output\n",
    "        | - README.md                                    # README file containing link to Google Slides for our presentation\n",
    "        \n",
    "```\n",
    "        \n",
    "At the end of this project, we will present our findings in a presentation using Google Slides. All other files in this repository are supporting files that will not be covered in the presentation.\n",
    "\n",
    "### Sources\n",
    "\n",
    "Chalabi, Mona and Flowers, Andrew. Dear Mona, What’s The Most Common Name In America? FiveThirtyEight. 2013.\n",
    "https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-the-most-common-name-in-america/\n",
    "\n",
    "FiveThirtyEight. Most Common Name.\n",
    "https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data.git\n",
    "\n",
    "Popular Baby Names. Social Security Administration.\n",
    "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/limits.html"
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